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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
169 Ohio St
170 Purdue
|
17
24
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 Time 2004-11-13 15:30:00 |
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I pick "
(170) Purdue
".
When Purdue was 5-0 and ranked in the Top 5 they were clearly overrated having beaten Syr, Ball St, Ill, ND, & Penn St. However, now that they have lost 4 st games by a combined 10 pts to 4 teams headed to bowls, there is once again MAJOR VALUE in backing Pur. The Boilers have been plagued by turnovers and bad breaks but yet have fought like hell in all of their games. Purdue enjoys some HUGE fundamental adv vs OSU. Whether Orton plays or not (obviously it will help if he does but not kill us if he doesn't), the Boilers are FAR more effcient on offense, as they are 23rd in the country in total offense. Meanwhile OSU, is PATHETIC on offense. They are 79th in rushing offense, 99th in passing, and 105th in total O. Purdue has shut down opposing offenses all yr, especially at home where they are giving up just over 10ppg. NOTE: Pur is 20-1 ATS at home vs Big 10 when allow 17 or less pts. Don't be deceived by OSU's 32 pts last week. They got 1 TD on a punt ret and benefitted from 3 INT's by MSU's back-up QB. The biggest RED FLAG in OSU's game last week was the fact the MSU dropped back to pass 46 times with their back-up QB and completed 29 without allowing a SINGLE sack. Sunny weather is expected on Sat, and Purdue will be able to throw all day on OSU. PU has TRIPLE REVENGE vs OSU and is 36-3-1 ATS when they win SU in rev. Lastly, OSU is 0-10 ATS away off double dig SU win. Clarett situation was BIG DISTRACTION this week. Re-energized Purdue WINS BIG AT HOME!
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
141 Air Force
142 Wyoming
|
26
43
|
|
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Time 2004-10-30 15:00:00 |
WIN
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I pick "
(142) Wyoming
".
At 4-3, Wyoming is actually still in the hunt for a bowl bid. The Cowboys are a perfect 4-0 at home this year, including an impressive win over SEC conference representative Ole Miss. UW has finally begun to recruit a higher caliber of athlete with more speed, and it shows, as they've held 3 of 4 opponents to 10 pts or less at home. We are getting tremendous LINE VALUE here as a result of Wyoming's lopsided loss at CSU last Fri night (a game in which I NAILED CSU). However, watching that game I was impressed with Wyoming's ability to move the ball and their team attitude. The score was very unindicative of the outcome as things snowballed late against the Cowboys in that game. With Utah still looming on the schedule, the Cowboys cannot afford to drop this game if they have any plans on finishing in the top tier of the conference and landing a bowl bid. AF is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 trips to Laramie. The Falcons' defense has really slipped this yr with a virtually new unit from last yr's team. The price is cheap here for a team that is 4-0 at home. The SU winner is also 13-1 ATS in AF's last 14 games, so we're really picking the winner of this game SU. AF faces Army next, a game that means much more to them, especially having already lost to Navy. Wyoming is a team on the rise, and they will get a big home victory here.
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
129 Connecticut
130 Syracuse
|
30
42
|
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Time 2004-10-30 13:30:00 |
WIN
|
|
I pick "
(130) Syracuse
".
Syracuse HAS TO WIN this game if they have any hopes of a bowl bid (the key to saving Coach Pasqualoni's job). The Orangemen have played very good football at home this season, beating Cincy & Rutgers by double digits, and almost knocking off #5 Florida State. Syr is 3-0 ATS at home this year where they are very comfortable. This is another game in which there is TREMENDOUS LINE VALUE as a result of Syracuse's pathetic showing last week at WV on national TV. However, a closer look once again reveals a different picture. Syracuse moved the ball up and down the field against a WV defense that is far better than that of UConn. They did so without their best player, Walter Reyes, who will be back for this game and should get his 25+ carries. Syracuse did themselves in with special teams mishaps (3 missed FG's, a fumbled punt, and a blocked punt). With 10 days between games, I feel very comfortable that the Orangemen will have addressed their special teams failures. UConn has played just 1 road game this season, a very UNIMPRESSIVE 27-7 loss at BC in which they were physically dominated. UConn enjoys playing the role of bully against inferior teams (Murray St, Duke, Army), but against the two teams supposedly a notch ahead of them (WV, BC) UConn could not match their physicality. Uconn is already 5-2 with games against Buffalo & Rutgers still remaining. Thus, they will not play with the DESPERATION Syracuse will in this game. Huskies have given up 62 pts last 2 games.
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
103 Hawaii
104 Boise St
|
3
69
|
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Time 2004-10-29 20:00:00 |
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I pick "
over
".
Hawaii has allowed pedestrian offenses like San jose State, Nevada, and Florida Atlantic light up the scoreboard against them. Boise will have no mercy in putting as many points on the board as they can. The Rainbows had some key injuries to the defense in last week's win vs San Jose State. Boise is trying to impress pollsters and they will show mercy on offense. On the flip side, Tim Chang and the Hawaii offense will get their share of points too. The Broncos have shown susceptibility to the pass this season themselves. The clock will be stopped more than it will be moving in this game, as Hawaii will throw approx 90% of the time, while Boise will be able to churn out 1st down after 1st down. Even San jose managed two 70+ yard TD runs vs Hawaii last week. Hawaii can not stop the run or pass. Boise is OK on defense, but they will give up their share. In summary, the oddsmakers have tried to scare us off the OVER by posting an extremely high total, but they didn't go high enough. This game might hit 90!
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
101 Virginia Tech
102 Georgia Tech
|
34
20
|
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Time 2004-10-28 19:30:00 |
WIN
|
|
I pick "
(101) Virginia Tech
".
It has taken Va Tech a while to earn back their rightful place in the top 25, but they are finally there. While VT & GT seem to be pretty evenly matched on paper, the Hokies are just a TAD bit better in many categories. Bryan Randall has given VT stability & leadership at QB, as he is an adept runner and passer. VT actually is better off with Marcus Vick not in the picture,as Randall has been able to assume a leadership role as the full time starter. Mike Imoh and Cedric Humes both average over 4 yds/carry from the RB spot and provide a tough 1-2 punch. Defensively, Va tech is allowing just 3.1 yards/carry vs the run, is 5th in scoring defense, 7th in total defense, and 8th in pass defense. Their defensive speed is VERY good. In a closely contested, evenly matched game like this, special teams is often the difference, and anyone who follows football knows that VT always has one of the best units in the country. Reggie Ball is still very inconsistent at QB (49% passing, more INTs than TDs)for GT. The biggest difference here is the intangibles. VT BELIEVES and knows they can win, while GT hopes they play well enough to win. This will be Va Tech's 10th appearance in an ESPN Thursday night game, and it has won eight of the previous nine. The only loss came to Boston College in 1995. The only one of the eight victories that wasn't by at least 16 points was a 28-23 decision over BC in 2002. The Hokies are a higher caliber program with better coaching, experience, and intangibles.
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
433 DEN Broncos
434 CIN Bengals
|
10
23
|
|
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Time 2004-10-25 21:00:00 |
WIN
|
|
I pick "
(434) CIN Bengals
".
The NFL is an "ebb & flow" league. No team is ever as good or as bad as they looked in their previous week. The Bengals are 0-5 ATS this year, and 1-4 SU, while Denver is 5-1 SU and coming off of a blowout win over Oakland. So, why on earth am I playing Cincy here? SIMPLE! Football is a game of emotion. The Bengals are hosting their 1st Monday Night game in over a DECADE, and whether they are 1-4 or 4-1, this is THEIR SUPERBOWL. Obviously, the Broncos are a better overall club than Cincy, but getting a TD (should be +7 by gametime) with the fired up home underdog is an old axiom of handicapping that has proven profitable over time. In their Sun night game vs Miami earlier this season, Cincy played with tons of emotion and came up with their lone win. The Bengals will pull out all the stops on national TV. The Broncos are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Mon night games, while Cincy is 13-2 ATS playing at home vs an opp who won their last game on the road. Denver will be a popular play tonight, but there are not big shiny buildings all over Vegas because the linesmakers are DUMMIES. Can Denver blow out Denver? Sure they can. However, they are overvalued in the line here as a result of their record. Reubun Droughns will not run for 150+ yards again, and Plummer is turnover prone. Lastly, Denver is 1-8 ATS as road favs in Oct when favored by more than 3. The NFL is a "funny league". When a given side looks TOO OBVIOUS as Denver does tonight, that's BECAUSE IT IS!
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
429 SEA Seahawks
430 ARI Cardinals
|
17
25
|
|
|
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Time 2004-10-24 16:15:00 |
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|
I pick "
under
".
Seattle has given up 33 and 30 points in their last two games, both losses. However, the opponents were the Patriots and Rams, two of the higher powered offenses in the league. In Seattle's 1st 3 games combined, they gave up a total of 13 points. Playing the Cardinals this week and their pedestrian offense, look for Seattle's defense to get back into good form. In two meetings vs the Cards last yr, Sea allowed 10 & 0 points. The addition of Jerry Rice is no factor for the Seahawk offense. In fact, if anything, when he is on the field the chances of a deep pass decrease dramatically. In Seattle's 3 wins, Shawn Alexander carried the load, so look for the 'Hawks to get back to the ground game and solid defense. On the other side, Arizona has held high powered offenses of NE and New Orl to 23 & 10 points at home this yr and have played UNDER the total in 9 of their last 11 home games. Ariz will NOT win a shootout with the Seahawks and Denny Green knows it. The Cards' defense was humiliated by Tim Rattay and the Niners who threw for almost 500 yards against them last time out, so you know pass defense was a major focus during the bye. This is a pivotal game for Seattle, so they won't be messing around with gimmcks. Look for lots of running plays as Seattle grinds out a low-scoring divisional victory.
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
323 Oklahoma St
324 Missouri
|
20
17
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Time 2004-10-23 15:30:00 |
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|
I pick "
(324) Missouri
".
The Big-12 North is up for grabs and a win by Mizzou here would put them in the drivers seat. Very surprising that this line is only 3-3.5 given that UM has won 9 straight home games and 12 of their last 15. Missouri has also dominated OSU, going 6-1 both SU & ATS vs the Cowboys since 1993. The last 5 times Missouri lost (SU) they have come back the next week to COVER the spread. Having watched Mizzou play at Austin last week and really dominate the line of scrimmage vs Texas only to be defeated by turnovers was very impressive. UM has a VERY stout run defense which is what they will need vs OSU. The Cowboys are a completely 1-dimensional team running the ball, as Woods is only completing 8 passes per game. The Tigers will be able to load up against the run as they did at Texas last week. OSU ran off some big scores early this season vs teams that can't defense the run (Tulsa, SMU, ISU, UCLA, & Col). However, when A&M forced them to throw the ball last week by slowing down the running game, they couldn't do it. On the flip side, Brad Smith is a dual threat at QB, similar to Reggie mcNeal of A&M who tore OSU's defense apart last week. Smoth is every bit as good as McNeal, averaging 199 yards/game passing with 11 TD's to just 5 INT's. Bottom line: Missouri has been looking to win a "statement type of game" vs a ranked team and this is their chance. They are at home where they have been dominant and are facing a team that was EXPOSED loast week. LAY the CHEAP #
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
305 Wyoming
306 Colorado St
|
7
30
|
|
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Time 2004-10-22 21:30:00 |
WIN
|
|
I pick "
(306) Colorado St
".
With CSU's starting QB, Holland, out for the year, the number has cheapened significantly here than it otherwise would be, especially with CSU coming off of a road win at SDSU. Caleb Hanie, although making just his first start, will add another dimension to CSU's sputtering offense, as he is a good runner. Playing at home against an average at best defense, he could not be in a better situation for his first start. It's hard to imagine that a team that has lost 24 of their last 26 road games (both wins came vs lowly Utah St) could be getting just 4 points against anybody. In 2 road games this year, the Cowboys have scored a total of 13 points. Corey Bramlet is completing just 53% OF passes with more INT's than TD's and Wyoming is PITIFUL running the football. Where CSU has gotten burnt defensively this yr is on the ground, and Wyoming will not pose them a problem here. The biggest factor behind this play is EMOTION. This is a little known rivalry around the country but these team HATE each other, and the game is called the BORDER WAR. Some Wyoming fans have already vandalized CSU's home field (Sonny Lubick field)this week, spray painting their colors and letters on the field. If this doesn't provide a team with an extra spark, nothing will. Add to this that UW beat CSU 35-28 last year and tore down the goalposts, celebrating as if they'd won the national championship. Sonny Lubick will have his team ready for this game and it will mean a little extra. The price is CHEAP
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| Visitor vs Home |
Score |
Spread |
Total |
Money |
301 Syracuse
302 W Virginia
|
6
27
|
|
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Time 2004-10-21 19:30:00 |
WIN
|
|
I pick "
(302) W Virginia
".
West Virginia played an incredibly sloppy game, dropping passes and committing a huge number of penalties, yet they still easily dispensed of UConn in a hostile stadium. Now the Mountaineers return to Morgantown for their first home game in a month and they will assuredly receive an extra boost from the 12th man. Jason Colson has filled in beautifully at RB for Kay Jay Harris and is averaging over 5 yards/carry, while Rasheed Marshall is one of the better dual QB threats in the country, leading the Big East in passing efficiency and rushing for a ton of yards. Rich Rodriguez was LIVID despite the victory with his team's effort at UConn, and Rodriguez is quickly gaining a reputation as one of the country's better coaches. Syracuse has a very solid RB tandem in Reyes and Rhodes, but Perry Patterson is still highly inconsistent at QB, with more INT's than TD's. WV will put 8 men on the line of scrimmage and dare Patterson to beat them throwing. Syracuse is ranked last in the league in third-down conversion percentage, they figure to face many 3rd & long yardage situations in this game. WV is avg 34 ppg, while Syr is allowing 33 ppg on the road. Thus it's fair to assume WV cracks 30. The fav is 9-2 ATS in this series and WV is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 weekday games. Meanwhile, Syr is 2-16 ATS in their last 18 Big East road games as underdogs and 3-42 ATS when they lose SU away. Syr is not a "live dog" with a chance for the outright win. Lay the points with a fired up WV squad!
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