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 Time 2008-05-12 16:05:00 |
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I pick "
(926) CLE Indians
".
Cleveland over Toronto
The Indians continued their home domination of the Blue Jays the first two games of this series outscoring the birds 18-1 in the process. Fausto Carmona takes the hill for the host looking to regain his 2007 form off a rocky start to the season. But Carmona continues to pitch well at home. In four home starts he has allowed just six earned runs in 23.2 innings of work. His familiarity with this mound has been a bonus because he has been horrible on the road. He owns a 2.28 ERA at home and a 7.20 ERA on the road. He will be helped by the strike zone of umpire Andrew Fletcher who has gone 11-3-2 to the under his last 16 games behind the plate.
Toronto has lost three key members to injury this week and their offense is in shambles. In the last 10 games they have scored just 29 runs. AJ Burnett brings a career ERA of 8.46 against the Tribe into today's game. He has been as inconsistent as Carmona thus far this season. The big righty can be dominating at times and yet his inconsistency has been his downfall, that and injuries which have plagued his career.
Cleveland is breaking out of their offensive funk while the Jays are missing their best offensive weapon. The Tribe has dominated Toronto here winning eight straight at home in this series. We simply can't see Toronto scoring enough to reverse the historic trend.
PLAY CLEVELAND
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Time 2008-05-11 20:05:00 |
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I pick "
(979) BOS Red Sox
".
Boston over Minnesota
Tim Wakefield takes the mound for the Red Sox and he simply loves to pitch in domes. The knuckleballer is at his best when wind isn't a factor, and domes create the perfect storm for his pitches. Maybe that's why he has a 13-4 career record against the Twins. Last year in the Metrodome he held the Twins to a .130 batting average and .174 slugging percentage in his only start. The veteran righty owns a 2.77 ERA on the road this season.
Minnesota counters with young Nick Blackburn who has managed just three quality starts in his last six games. Blackburn's problem with this lineup is that he's not a strikeout pitcher and the Red Sox have the most patient offense in baseball. Without a go to strikeout pitch the Sox can just wait him out and get a good pitch to hit.
Boston has scored five or more runs in nine straight games. During this recent offensive explosion they are averaging 6.89 runs per game. Look for the Sox to continue their offensive success as they figure out the young righty.
PLAY BOSTON
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Time 2008-05-11 20:05:00 |
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I pick "
(513) NOR Hornets
".
New Orleans (+) over San Antonio
Despite the Spur's success on the scoreboard in the last game they are still struggling to slow down the Hornets. New Orleans shot 49.4% from the field and were able to get just about any shot they wanted. The defensive change putting Bowen on Stojakovic helped slow down the veteran but it didn't slow down Chris Paul who had 35 points and nine assists. New Orleans fans would much rather see their best player taking 25 shots than an outside shooter putting up just seven which is what Stojakovic did in the previous game. New Orleans also held their own on the glass losing the rebounding battle by just two 43 to 41. What is a telling sign for this series is that despite San Antonio being the defending champions playing at home New Orleans matched them from the free throw line at 21 shots apiece.
The Hornets have won four of the last six meetings in this series and despite San Antonio's history most experts feel New Orleans is the better team. The Hornets are 38-13 ATS off a loss and they are extremely confident right now. This is a team that has won outright in 27 of 44 road games this season. We look for this game to go down to the wire with New Orleans giving the champs all they can handle.
PLAY NEW ORLEANS
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Time 2008-05-11 16:10:00 |
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I pick "
under
".
Chicago at Seattle Under
Two struggling offenses broke out of prolonged slumps yesterday but we can't see the scoring outburst continuing. Neither team is built to grind out runs as they both seem better fits in a home run derby contest. This ballpark is a pitchers best friend and will play like that more than it's share with teams not able to manufacture runs.
Chicago sends Gavin Floyd to the mound fresh off his second attempt at no-hitter history. He has five quality starts of his six this year for Chicago. Three of those quality starts have come on the road and this ballpark seems to be a perfect fit for Floyd.
Seattle counters with Miguel Batista who has struggled here this season with a 12.54 ERA on the year. But we expect him to round into form today against this struggling Chicago lineup. The White Sox are averaging just 3.97 runs on the road vs righties while hitting .230.
Before last night's offensive breakout for both these teams Chicago had averaged 2.89 runs per game their previous nine, while Seattle averaged 1.78 runs per game in the same time frame. Chicago has gone under the total in 10 of 11 games vs right-handed starters. With both teams catching planes after today's game we can look for quick at bats.
PLAY UNDER
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Time 2008-05-11 13:05:00 |
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I pick "
(968) CLE Indians
".
Cleveland over Toronto
The Indians continued their home domination of the Blue Jays the first two games of this series outscoring the birds 18-1 in the process. Fausto Carmona takes the hill for the host looking to regain his 2007 form off a rocky start to the season. But Carmona continues to pitch well at home. In four home starts he has allowed just six earned runs in 23.2 innings of work. His familiarity with this mound has been a bonus because he has been horrible on the road. He owns a 2.28 ERA at home and a 7.20 ERA on the road. He will be helped by the strike zone of umpire Andrew Fletcher who has gone 11-3-2 to the under his last 16 games behind the plate.
Toronto has lost three key members to injury this week and their offense is in shambles. In the last 10 games they have scored just 29 runs. AJ Burnett brings a career ERA of 8.46 against the Tribe into today's game. He has been as inconsistent as Carmona thus far this season. The big righty can be dominating at times and yet his inconsistency has been his downfall, that and injuries which have plagued his career.
Cleveland is breaking out of their offensive funk while the Jays are missing their best offensive weapon. The Tribe has dominated Toronto here winning eight straight at home in this series. We simply can't see Toronto scoring enough to reverse the historic trend.
PLAY CLEVELAND
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Time 2008-05-10 20:00:00 |
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I pick "
over
".
Boston at Cleveland Over
Cleveland shot 31% from the field in game one and 36% in game two yet the total in this game is less than either one of those, despite the fact that the Cavs will obviously shoot much better in front of their home crowd. If you remember back to last season when Cleveland looked horrendous in the first two games of the Detroit series it was at home that the Cavs offenses shined. We expect a repeat this time around as Lebron and company push the pace in front of their home fans.
Boston completely dominated the Hawks defensively in the first round but when they had to travel to Atlanta the young Hawks exploded offensively. It's harder to get the defensive calls on the road that you get in front of a vocal home crowd. Boston will once again apply the pressure but the referees will be less likely to let them get away with it.
Ben Wallace will be out of action tonight and that can only help the scoring. While not the defensive stalwart he had been in the past he was a big body able to clog up the middle. Possibly just as important Wallace is an offensive liability. With his absence the Cavs will be forced to go deeper on the bench which is another defensive concern for the host. We expected the highest posted total in the series tonight but instead we get the lowest number. That's something we simply can't ignore.
PLAY OVER
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Time 2008-05-10 19:05:00 |
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I pick "
(920) CLE Indians
".
Cleveland over Toronto
The Blue Jays struggles vs left-handed starters continued yesterday as CC Sabathia held them to a single run. That makes Toronto 3-8 vs lefties as they have really struggled especially on the road. Away vs southpaws the Blue Jays are hitting .178 and scoring just 1.27 runs per game. To make matters worse today they face Aaron Laffey who they have never seen in person. Laffey has been excellent in his first two starts for the Tribe after taking over for Jake Westbrook who was put on the DL. To make matters worse for Toronto they haven't had much success in this building dropping 12 of 13.
Dustin McGowan takes the hill for Toronto but he didn't impress the Indians a year ago. In his only start Cleveland hit him up for a .300 batting average and .450 slugging percentage. Victor Martinez went a perfect 3 for 3 against the young righty.
Over the last 10 games Toronto is averaging just 3.0 runs per contest. Going against a talented lefty we can't see the team from up north breaking out here, especially when you consider that Vernon Wells will be out of the lineup. He injured his wrist and hamstring on the same play yesterday and had to leave the game.
PLAY CLEVELAND
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Time 2008-05-09 20:05:00 |
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I pick "
(959) STL Cardinals
".
St Louis over Milwaukee
Todd Wellemeyer takes the hill today for the Cardinals making his first start of his career vs the Brewers. He has pitched in relief against Milwaukee with little success but he has been a much better starter since getting the opportunity a year ago. The Brewers are scoring just 4.06 runs per game at home vs right-handed starters. They are coming off back to back series sweeps at the hands of Houston and Florida.
Milwaukee sends struggling lefty Manny Parra to the hill. This will be his third start of the season vs the Cardinals. The first two starts were not pretty as he allowed 21 base runners and six earned runs in just nine innings of work. The Cardinals are at a sizable advantage because of their familiarity with the youngster. St Louis is scoring 5.17 runs per game on the road vs southpaws.
Milwaukee has scored just 20 runs in their last seven games despite facing the weak rotations of Houston and Florida. Now they face one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. The Cardinals have won 5 of 8 at Milwaukee and 10 of 14 overall in this series. They are on a 13-5 run with Wellemeyer on the hill. The wrong team is favored tonight.
PLAY ST LOUIS
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Time 2008-05-09 19:05:00 |
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I pick "
over
".
Atlanta at Pittsburgh Over
These two starters got together on the last day of March and 23 runs were scored in an extra inning affair. We're looking for another offensive showdown. Atlanta will send Tom Glavine to the hill and he struggled in his first start off the DL. Glavine permitted 12 base runners and six runs in just 4.2 innings of work. He will be facing a Pirate lineup which has pounded lefties on the season averaging 6.32 runs per game.
Pittsburgh will send Ian Snell to the hill as he tries once again to find some sort of rhythm. In his last three starts consisting of 16.1 innings Snell has permitted 12 earned runs. Atlanta has had little trouble with right-handed starters scoring 6.05 runs per game this season.
Both teams are in strong current form offensively with Pittsburgh scoring 56 runs their last eight games, and the Braves scoring 38 total runs in their last eight games. We will look for another offensive outburst against two starters struggling to find the zone.
PLAY OVER
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Time 2008-05-09 14:20:00 |
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I pick "
(951) ARI D'backs
".
Arizona over Chicago
There is no doubt that the scheduling situation favors the Cubs. Arizona played at home yesterday afternoon and had to travel while the Cubs had the day off. But the Diamondbacks continue to make a case for being the best team in the National League after splitting with the hot hitting Phillies. Arizona is 9-5 on the road and is coming off a 10 game home stand. The Diamondbacks have taken seven of the last eight meetings in this series.
Dan Haren takes the hill for the visitors and he should have a significant edge in this game as the Cubs haven't faced him since 2004. Haren has been everything the Diamondbacks had hoped for with his signing in the off-season. He will be facing a slumping Chicago lineup who has been held to three runs or less in six of their last 7 games.
Ted Lilly takes the mound for the host and he will have to tame an Arizona offense which has raked against left-handed starters this season. The D'Backs are hitting .287 and scoring 5.52 runs per game vs southpaws. Lilly has a 5.97 ERA on the season and he has been touched for 10 earned runs in 16.2 innings of work at home.
The Diamondbacks are 18-6 on the road vs left-handed starters and have taken 44 of the last 65 games in this series. Getting plus money here is simply a gift.
PLAY ARIZONA
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