Dave Cokin
Baseball fans love to focus on the starting pitchers for each game. Aces against No. 3 starters, hot pitchers and strikeout artists all add to the fun of watching games each day. It's important for serious bettors not to get too hyped up about starters, as oddsmakers base most of their wagering numbers on them. Too often starters are gone by the 6th inning, especially in the NL where pitchers bat, meaning other factors come into play in deciding a game: the park, the relief staff, defense, and offense.
Even scheduling can come into play, if a team is on a long road trip or off an extra inning game. Extra inning games can take something out of a team, especially the longer it goes, as fewer pitchers are available the next game. Remember that 22-inning game the Padres lost at home last month? San Diego had a winning record the previous seven games, then went in the tank after that 22-inning marathon. They lost the next two nights 9-0 and 10-3, which started a 2-9 run. The team that won that marathon, Colorado, finished up a 9-game road trip, then lost 11 of 13 games.
With that said, one aspect of the first couple of months of the baseball season that is interesting and profitable to examine is young or little known pitchers. Guys who step into the bullpen or starting rotation and throw well can slide under the radar of oddsmakers. They can stabilize rotations, add needed depth to the pen, while offering excellent wagering opportunities.
One reason for the Florida Marlins surprising success is the crop of little known starters. A guy to keep an eye on is 6-foot-6, 22-year old Andrew Miller. He's the key guy they got from the Tigers in the Willis/Cabrera deal over the winter. Miller may finally have turned a corner in recent starts. He dominated in a 10-3 win over the Padres, then I backed him against the lowly Nationals Saturday, an 11-0 wipeout. Miller went 7 innings allowing 2 hits, one walk and 7 strikeouts. His overall ERA is not impressive, but with pitchers, especially young ones, it's important to examine how they have done lately.
Another interesting kid is Diamondbacks rookie phenom Max Scherzer. Everyone knows the trio of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Randy Johnson, but the 6-foot-3, 23-year old Schertzer has dazzling stuff. In 14 innings he's fanned 18 with just 3 walks. As if first-place Arizona needed anymore pitching! Perhaps even more amazing is that the D-Backs are 0-3 in his 3 starts. That's more of a fluke, as he has a 3.14. That losing skid probably won't continue with surprising Arizona having the top offense in the NL.
Baltimore may not be in first place, but they were supposed to be real bad and instead are around .500. One reason is it's starting to look like 24-year old lefty Garrett Olson is beginning to fulfill his potential. The hard throwing Baltimore southpaw has been dynamite since his recall and is undervalued now. He's 2-0 with an ERA under three. I backed him against the Royals, as the Royals continue to have offensive issues and Baltimore had already beaten them back to back. The Orioles jumped out to a 3-0 first inning lead on the way to a win. It's always nice to get out to a head start when you're holding a ticket on the team with the early lead.
San Francisco is not going to the postseason, but they are another team with interesting young pitchers. Last year the Giants brought up a young phenom in righty Tim Lincecum and the kid has really taken off this season at 5-1 with a 1.61 ERA. They have another one in Jonathan Sanchez. I backed the kid against the Phillies and he cashed, 4-3. In my analysis of the game I noted, "Sanchez has been erratic since finding his way into the regular Giants pitching rotation, but there's no doubt about the stuff owned by this lefty. Sanchez can pitch and has a chance to be a star if things fall into place. Right now, I think it's a matter of trusting his own stuff.
"Sanchez has fabulous numbers against lefties, but has struggled against righties. The reason is readily apparent. He has not walked a single lefty hitter all season, but can't locate the zone with any regularity against righties. Since home plate is immobile, the conclusion I reach is that it's a mental thing that Sanchez has to get past, and once he does, he's going to be a very solid pitcher. Against the Phillies, though, I like his chances. Sanchez has been good at home, and Philly's Adam Eaton is a pretty soft opponent even the popgun SF attack can exploit somewhat. I'll grab Sanchez and the Giants to salvage the series finale."
Sanchez got the money, though he walked 5 batters, a problem he still hasn't mastered, but keep an eye on him, as he has outstanding stuff. So be sure and keep up on the minor leagues and top prospects. Big name pitchers catch the eye of oddsmakers, but little known hurlers can offer great value, especially this time of the season.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...