Dave Cokin
Home court has been the theme of these NBA Playoffs. Frenzied crowds and inspired play, not to mention favorable calls by the refs, have all combined give the home teams a significant edge. The Hawks/Celtics series was the poster child, with the home team going a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS. It was a surprise, too, as the Celtics were a dominant road team all season at 31-10 SU, 27-13 ATS. Now, a very different team in Green has shown up on the road, one that got pushed around and beat on the boards by the No. 8 seeded Hawks.
They are 0-3 Su/ATS in the postseason. That was not a concern in game 7 at home, as they flattened the Hawks Sunday 99-65. We know the Celtics can play defense in the playoffs -- at home, anyway. Atlanta.5?s 26-point first half was a playoff record-low for a Celtics opponent. The Hawks shot 29.3 percent for the game, and also forked over 17 turnovers, which the Celtics converted into 27 points. On the other hand, where was that choking defense on the road? Boston gets the first two games against the Cleveland Cavaliers at home, but then two on the road. In theory, the Cavs should offer a tougher test than Atlanta.
The Celtics threw double teams at Joe Johnson the last three games, something they may continue against LeBron James. James is a smart, gifted player, however. "If they double team me, it won't be something I haven't seen before," said LeBron. "It may have caught Joe Johnson off guard, but it won't catch me off guard." The teams split four regular season games, with the Cavaliers holding a 3-1 ATS edge. The Celtics have always had trouble dealing with him. He has scored 30 or more points against them in nine of the past 10 meetings.
The Celtics thrived on routing teams at home in the regular season, 14 times winning by 20 points or more as they went 35-6 SU, 26-15 ATS at home, the second best in the NBA. During the season, their average margin of victory was 10 points, the highest in the NBA. The Cavs lost twice in Boston, though they beat the Celtics twice at home, once by 10 points without LeBron and once by five points after their February trade.
In addition to home court, two of the other key postseason edges are defense and rebounding. Pat Riley always used to say, "No rebounds, no rings," and there's a lot of truth to that. All of which made Game 1 of the Jazz/Lakers series highly unusual. The athletic young Jazz attacked the backboards with a vengeance, outrebounding the Lakers 58-41 in Game 1, including 25-8 on the offensive glass.
Those are sensational numbers. Yet, the Lakers still had a 17-point lead and won the game, 109-98. Home court trumped again, as the Lakers are now 5-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Part of it was home court, and part of it was that the Lakers are just too good. I had LA in Game 1, and part of my analysis went thusly: "The Jazz got the job done against Houston, but they're stepping up in class here. Utah is not a great road team and the Lakers are blazing hot off the sweep against the Nuggets. I like the home court edge to be a key here and I'll lay the spot in Game 1 with the Lakers." As good as the Utah rebounding was, you can't ignore their poor 19-26 SU, 20-25 ATS record on the road. Utah center Mehmet Okur took a season-high 19 rebounds, eight of them at the offensive end. Carlos Boozer had 14 rebounds, six offensive, but it wasn't enough.
On a side note, it's interesting that veteran Lakers guard Derek Fisher has imparted his knowledge of the Jazz to his current teammates after spending last season with Utah. "It's good for us," Kobe Bryant said. "He's obviously played with that team and he's very intelligent. He retains a lot of information, so he remembers everything that they were executing." Notice that Fisher had six steals in Game 1, one shy of the team playoff record shared by Magic Johnson and Byron Scott. It's not cheating, it's looking for any edge!
Expect to continue to see physical play the rest of the NBA playoffs. The Hawks upset the Celtics three times in Atlanta by attacking the backboards. Utah had a huge edge on the glass in Game 1 at LA, while the Pistons played the physical game against Orlando in Game 1, a 91-72 rout. Detroit sent a lot of bodies at Magic superstar center Dwight Howard.
Jason Maxiell replaced broken-nosed Antonio McDyess in the starting lineup. "When it gets physical, it's more of my game," Maxiell said after being the main defender who held Howard to 12 points and eight rebounds. "I'm about getting down low and beating up folks and letting it be known how it's gonna be. The job is to keep bodies on people." Howard admitted he got frustrated. Flip Saunders can throw four big guys at the 6-foot-11 Howard in 6-7 Maxiell, 6-9 McDyess, 6-11 Wallace and 6-10 Ratliff. In Game 1, Maxiell had 12 points and nine rebounds, better than Howard.
"They ain't built for this," Rasheed Wallace said of Orlando. "We like all the dirty stuff. They want to throw elbows at us, and when we throw elbows back and push people back." So Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs seems to have two themes now: Home Court Dominance and Physical Play. The Jazz and Magic have been punched, now can they punch back?
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...