Dave Cokin
It's important to look at regular season meetings between NBA playoff participants. After all, the Celtics won and covered all three games against the Atlanta Hawks this season, then dominated the young Hawks in Game 1, 104-81. It was men (and depth) against boys. Six Celtics hit double figures, including Leon Powe and Sam Cassell with 10 each off the bench. Four starters scored at least 15 points.
But just as important a thing to remember this time of the year is strategic adjustments. Coaching staffs can earn their dough by throwing in new wrinkles to try and surprise the opponent and exploit a weakness. Playoff basketball is about punching and counterpunching. Look at the first game of the Suns/Spurs series. San Antonio scored 72 points in the paint in Game 1, 12 more than Phoenix had given up in any game this season. San Antonio took advantage of Shaq getting into foul trouble and attacked the paint. Also, in the second overtime Greg Popovich spread the floor and let crafty penetrators Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili take it to the basket one-on-one. That's great coaching, looking for a weakness and attacking.
San Antonio had shot 40.1 percent against Phoenix in the regular season, and Ginobili had gone 20 for 71 from the field. After halftime in Game 1, the Spurs shot 58.6 percent. On the flip side, the Suns will adjust and hope to have Shaq in less foul trouble. In addition, let's face it, the Spurs had home court but trailed most of the game and were lucky to hit TWO amazing three-pointers to force OT. That's not winning convincingly.
Looking for strategic adjustments is most important with underdogs. Favorites often take the track that they know they are the better team and can make any necessary adjustments during the game, if needed. Underdogs often open the game with new wrinkles, as they know they have to try something different.
The 76ers did in Game 1 against Detroit. The veteran Pistons are not a good one-on-one or isolation team, but much better in a team-game with all five players passing and producing. They did that in the first half, racing to a 15-point lead. But the 76ers' plan coming into the game was to guard big Rasheed Wallace with 7-footer Samuel Dalembert, alone. "We played Rasheed one-on-one with Sammy and we weren't going to help," 76ers coach Maurice Cheeks said. "If Sheed made shots, we were going to live with that. But we didn't want to start doubling and chasing their other guys around. We wanted to keep them in front of us and not over-help. I think that was big for us."
Wallace got 24 points, but he missed 12 of 21 shots. Cheeks figured the Pistons would try to force the ball into Wallace and try to exploit that mismatch. He was OK with that, as Cheeks was more concerned with the scoring threats of Chauncey Billups and Richard Hamilton. In the end, the 76ers pulled a stunning 90-86 upset in Game 1. Hamilton shot just 5 of 17 with four turnovers, while Billups was 3 for 9 with just four assists. And Wallace was ice cold in the second half, as was the team. The Pistons shot 29 percent in the second half.
So how did the teams do during the regular season? This may surprise you but it was an evenly matched regular season: The Pistons split four regular season games with the 76ers. "No question, everyone's shocked," said Antonio McDyess after Game 1. "A couple guys came in the locker room after the game and stared around and looked at each other, because we were in disbelief, couldn't believe it. Hopefully it will get better the next game. We're not going to panic."
The other thing to keep an eye on in that series is the relationship between Wallace and Flip Saunders. The tempermental Wallace melted down last year in the playoffs, reportedly as he doesn't care much for Saunders. If the 76ers keep pulling upsets, the boiling kettle that is Rasheed Wallace may explode again.
The happiest team out West in the NBA playoffs is the Lakers. What started as a season of discontent, has blossomed into a juggernaut. Remember, in the offseason Kobe Bryant wanted out and there were trade talks of him going to the Bulls. Center Andrew Bynum got hurt in January, but they acquired Pau Gasol and ended up with the best record in the West. All was well in Game 1 as Gasol stole the show, scoring 36 points with 16 rebounds to lead the Lakers to a 128-114 victory over the Nuggets.
Bettors had leaned on the under, pushing the total from a 226 opening number to 224.5. The game had little trouble sailing over, as Gasol was unstoppable (making 14 of 20 shots) and the Nuggets (as usual) played no defense. Gasol had seven dunks and five layups. Even I could have hit double figures!
It was interesting that the Nuggets' strategy in Game 1 was to rattle shooting guard Bryant. They did so by bringing power forward Kenyon Martin on him, as Martin is Denver's best one-on-one defender. Bryant went to the halftime locker room with just four points on 2-for-10 shooting and finished just 9-of-26. The strategy worked, but didn't influence the outcome of the game because Gasol stepped up and went wild. That's the thing about strategy: Sometimes it works and sometimes the other team adjusts. The Lakers adjusted in Game 1, the Pistons did not. And that's where you separate the good coaches from the bad.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...