Dave Cokin
A good way to assess an NBA team's postseason chances is to examine how they play on the road. Any team can get up to play at home, in front of cheering fans. That takes little in the way of extra effort or coaching motivation. It's getting up to play in front of hostile fans, winning on the road, that shows the intangibles deep inside a team: heart, work ethic, character, teamwork.
Those factors are going to be increased tenfold with the playoffs approaching. Simply put, a team is going to have to win on the road at some point. Even No. 1 seeds can slip up and lose home court early in a series, making a win in Game 3 or Game 4 on the road essential.
Road play was the key for the Cleveland Cavaliers last postseason. The Cavs were a young team that had a recent history of playing great at home but folding on the road. In the Eastern Conference Finals against the Pistons, the home team won the first four games. In Game 5 at Detroit, the Cavs pulled out a thrilling 109-107 overtime win. That was the only win by a visiting team in the entire series, one the Cavs closed out in Game 6, at home, in a 98-82 rout.
So what teams have been road warriors in the NBA? In the East, just three. The Celtics are 28-9 SU, 25-11 ATS on the road, the Pistons are 24-15 SU, 19-19 ATS, while the Orlando Magic have been money-makers away from home at 25-14 SU/ATS. And that's it. It's slim pickings in the East. The Cleveland Cavaliers just aren't the same team as a year ago, making a big midseason trade to try and shake things up. The Cavs are just 17-22 SU, 21-18 ATS on the road. The No. 5 seed Washington Wizards have been getting covers on the road all season, a sizzling 24-14 against the number, but that hasn't translated into straight up wins, with a losing road mark of 18-21 SU.
Everyone is anticipating a Celtics/Pistons Eastern showdown and note that each team has won on the other's court. That implies a tough, grueling series might be on tap. It's interesting that the Pistons have gone to their bench more this season in the hopes of keeping all the starters fresher for the playoffs. The successful development and depth of the Pistons' bench allowed coach Flip Saunders the luxury of reducing Tayshaun Prince's minutes down the stretch. Prince's minutes are down this season, nearly three minutes lower than 2006-07.
The young upstarts from Orlando will be interesting to watch. They've been great on the road and played the Pistons and Celtics tough this season. They lost at Boston 103-91 in their only trip there, but also won 103-85 at Detroit. At home they went 2-1 SU/ATS against Detroit and Boston. You can't pay any attention to their last road game, a 100-90 loss at the Knicks as a 7-point favorite, as it was a meaningless game -- and they played like it. "There's no analysis. We stunk," Magic Coach Stan Van Gundy said. "On offense, we stunk. On defense, we stunk. It was our worst game of the year by far. It was very embarrassing."
Out West there is a logjam of good teams, but if you examine road play it whittles the field considerably. The Dallas Mavericks had the best record in the NBA last season, but look very different in 2008. Road play is a big reason, with the Mavericks just 17-22 SU, 18-21 ATS away. Utah has been dominant at home (35-4 SU, 27-12 ATS), but just 16-22 SU, 15-23 ATS away from the Salt Palace.
The defending champion Spurs? San Antonio is just 21-18 SU, 15-24 ATS away from the Alamodome. Part of that can be attributed to all their injuries early in the season, as they are playing much better now. However, in March the Spurs lost 3 in a row at New Orleans, Detroit and Philly, and lost again last week at Utah, 90-64. "What have they won there?" Spurs coach Gregg Popovich wondered before the Utah game, "A billion in a row?" Popovich knows the importance of home court and road play, especially this time of the season.
On a side note, we think all NBA players follow the NCAA tournament carefully, but notice what Spurs captain Tim Duncan said when asked who would win the Kansas/Memphis game: "I've watched two minutes of the NCAA tournament this year," he said. "That was Saturday night, the end of the Kansas-North Carolina game. That's the extent of my knowledge of the brackets. So I can't make an educated prediction."
So what does that leave in the West? Only four very good road teams in New Orleans, LA, Houston and Phoenix. The surprising Hornets are 25-12 SU, 23-13 ATS on the road, the Lakers are 26-13 SU, 26-12 ATS on the road, the Rockets are 24-15 SU, 22-16 ATS, while the Suns are 23-15 SU, 19-17 ATS away from Phoenix. Houston is in the more difficult spot, without star center Yao Ming for the playoffs. So does that mean the Western Conference Finals will come out of the Hornets/Lakers/Suns trio? If consistent road play is the deciding factor, it could be!
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...