Dave Cokin
So much for long shots! This is going to be one of the more interesting Final Fours from a handicapping perspective as for the first time four No. 1 seeds have made it. Last year's Final Four was a classic case of experience versus youth, with experience prevailing (Florida). This year it's clearly a clash of powerhouse programs.
North Carolina, like the rest of the Final Four teams, isn't dominated by seniors but rather by juniors on down. Even more interesting is the coaching situation. North Carolina coach Roy Williams coached Kansas for 15 years. He had an emotional decision in 2000 to stay at Kansas rather than head to his alma mater (UNC), only to have another emotional new conference in 2003 announcing he was heading to Chapel Hill. And now the Jayhawks are standing in the way of another national title for him.
Williams said he felt "dirty" five years ago after telling Kansas' players he was leaving to coach North Carolina. "If I had known that I was going to feel that way, I wouldn't have left," Williams said. "Because that's the worst feeling I've ever had in my life." This will be the first meeting between the schools since he left, and it's a whopper, between (36-2) North Carolina and (35-3) Kansas.
North Carolina's win over Louisville, 83-73, was uptempo, with both schools shooting over 52%. North Carolina carries a 15-game win streak into this one, has covered 4 in a row and is 22-13 over the total. Defense may win championships, but note North Carolina is 3-1 over the total in the tourney. The Tar Heels are averaging 93 ppg in the tourney, 4 more ppg than during the season. It's clear they prefer to run, utilizing that depth and all those scoring options.
They'll be facing a Kansas team that has gone the opposite rout, at 3-1 under the total in the tourney allowing 57 ppg. For the season, the Jayhawks under Bill Self allow 38% shooting by opponents. Kansas beat (survived?) Davidson 59-57 and Self, in his fifth chance, will take a team to the Final Four. Rather than run at Davidson, Kansas decided to play like UCLA -- a choking defense. Davidson star Stephen Curry shot 36% from the field, hitting only nine of 25 attempts. Curry was four of 13 in the second half. Now it's on to the Final Four for Kansas, but keep in mind none of the Jayhawk players have ever been to a Final Four. The seniors had lost in the first round twice, and they had been beaten down by UCLA in the Elite Eight last year.
This will be the first time all season Kansas has been a dog. For the record, the last time Kansas was a dog was early last season, when they were +5 against defending champ Florida in the Las Vegas Invitational. Kansas won, 82-80 in overtime. Two years ago they were an underdog to Texas in the first round of the tourney, and won 80-68.
And speaking of underdogs, UCLA is in its third straight Final Four yet opened as a dog to Memphis. The Bruins have been a dog twice this season and went 2-0 SU/ATS. Hard to believe they were a +10 dog against Maryland back in November, but won easily, 71-59. UCLA was also a dog at Stanford and won 76-67. Like Kansas, UCLA has been a defensive demon, allowing 58 ppg for the season and just 53 ppg in four tourney contests. By the way, UCLA is 13-4 ATS the last three years as a dog.
UCLA beat Memphis, 50-45, two years ago in the NCAA West Regional final and advanced to its first of three consecutive Final Fours. Part of what happened was the Bruins' hard-core defense and some quick, disheartening scores while beating the Tigers' press. In the 50-45 loss the Tigers had only five assists on their 17 baskets. This year Memphis has five players with more than 60 assists. Both Memphis and UCLA are man-to-man defensive teams.
Memphis prefers to run right at opponents while averaging 80.3 points a game. They don't set a lot of screens and don't run a lot of screen and roll, but prefer to drive the middle and create opportunities to get high-percentage shots and rebounds. They are athletic enough to get a lot of both. Of course, they won't be able to run up and down the court on UCLA. The biggest difference between Memphis now and the 2005 meeting between these teams is Tigers' 6-4 freshman point guard Derrick Rose.
UCLA coach Ben Howland said, "Rose is a really special talent. At the end of the day Derrick Rose and UCLA's Kevin Love are the two best freshmen in the country in terms of how they performed along with Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo. Rose is a great point guard." By the way, Memphis is a perfect 4-0 over the total.
Howland pointed out this week what helped UCLA two years ago was a quick start. "Early in the game we attacked their press, we scored a couple of quick baskets and I thought that helped us get off to a good start," he said. "We did a good job of slowing the ball down, but we didn't have to face Rose two years ago. He's a difference maker." A year ago the Bruins had 5 sophomores and 2 juniors as their leading scorers and rebounders when they lost to Florida in the Final Four. Only one UCLA starter on that team, Josh Shipp, was not a part of the Bruins' run to the championship game in 2005.
Experience prevailed then, with Florida winning it all. This Final Four offers an interesting contrast in experience, as well: UCLA and North Carolina have been this far over the last few years. After two straight Elite Eight heartbreaks, the Memphis Tigers are finally advancing to the Final Four, along with Kansas, as the Jayhawk players have never been to a Final Four. You can't measure experience, patience or clutch play statistically, but they can be important handicapping factors as the games get bigger. We'll see if experience, defense, or both are difference-makers this weekend.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...