Dave Cokin
Plenty down and only 16 to go! Number sweet 16, that is. College basketball reaches a frenzy this week and next with the end of the season, culminating in the Elite 8, the Final Four and the title game. There are all kinds of ways of handicapping games, but two of the most reliable are matchup and site angles.
Site is where a team is playing, and while technically most of the sites are neutral, many times you will find a team either in its home city, state or in a similar geographic area. It's essential to examine historically how popular a team is and whether they draw fans, even on the road. This is even more important in tournament games where fans don't have to travel very far.
I used this angle in the Davidson/Georgetown game. The tournament was played in Raleigh, North Carolina, the home state of Davidson. In my analysis of the battle I wrote, "Teams enjoying distinct site advantages have been good plays over the years in this tourney, and this season has been no different. That's a big plus for Davidson here. So is the fact this team has loads of big game experience and they're already proven against elite competition. No deer in the headlights syndrome here, and I'm just not sold on Georgetown. Look for a close contest that goes right to the wire, which gets me to the Davidson side plus the points." Georgetown was a 5-point favorite, but couldn't shake the Wildcats as Davidson stunned Goliath Georgetown, 74-70. It doesn't hurt to have an NBA caliber talent like sophomore guard Stephen Curry, either, whose father Del played in the pros. Curry scored 25 of his 30 points in the second half!
Curry also had five assists, three steals and no turnovers. Point guard Jason Richards said: "This is amazing. People never thought we.5?d come this far. Our fans are always behind us, but to be able to do this and be in the national spotlight. I think we earned a lot respect and a whole lot more people know who Davidson is." And that's another thing about tournament play: Oddsmakers have to lean toward big name schools. Everyone knows Georgetown, but how many casual fans tuning into this tournament have heard of Davidson? The Wildcats last advanced to the final 16 in 1969. Many small schools may not have a big name, but they can play. Many are also hiding future NBA talent.
The Arkansas/North Carolina game was another one with similarities. I had a play on North Carolina with the reasoning, "Arkansas was impressive in sending home Indiana on Friday, but this is a much tougher task for the Hogs. It's a virtual home game for North Carolina and the Razorbacks have not been a particularly reliable road team. Also, teams that score double digit wins as underdogs generally bounce somewhat in the next round, a trend that could befall Arkansas here. I'm siding with the Tar Heels minus the points to win it big."
The game was played in Raleigh, North Carolina, the same site as the Davidson/Georgetown battle. North Carolina was a big 10-point favorite, but so what? The Tar Heels won by 31 points, 108-77! Arkansas on the road this season is 3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS, and that doesn't even include the tourney loss to the Tar Heels, which was technically a neutral site. North Carolina beats opponents by 17 ppg as chalk, where they are 29-2 SU, 20-10 ATS.
Arkansas had the big guys to bang with Tyler Hansbrough but no answer for Ty Lawson's fleet feet as the Tar Heels shot 67.7 percent from the field. And that's the second important angle of tournament play: matchups. Matchups have to do with some edge on the court, arena or playing field that one team can exploit over the opponent. A team with quality big men can pound a smaller team under the boards. Georgetown did that to Davidson -- in the first half. In the second half, Davidson went uptempo and the Hoyas had no answer.
North Carolina took the same uptempo approach and Arkansas simply didn't have the quickness defensively to do anything about it. So the Tar Heels had a home site edge, in addition to a significant matchup advantage. This was evident in the UNLV/Kansas game, too. There were mixed emotions for me, as I'm a Las Vegan and openly root for the Rebels. But the fact remains this is the type of physical matchup they have not handled when straying away from the Thomas & Mack center in Las Vegas. Kansas is big and deep, two things the Rebels definitely are not. I noted before the game, "Plus, UNLV's speed, which keys their defense, doesn't figure to come into play here. The site will be an advantage for the Jayhawks as well. Too much on the KU side for the Rebels to contend with, so the Jayhawks minus the points are the choice." Kansas had little trouble winning and covering, 75-56. Kansas had the edge in field goal shooting 58% to 26%.
Of course, having both site and matchup edges to lean on are great plusses during tournament action. I had a play on Memphis with the pregame reasoning, "Another big site advantage game as Little Rock is basically a home game for Memphis. I also like the matchup for the Tigers. Mississippi State needs to turn this game into a grinder to get the upset, and that's not a good style for the Bulldogs. So they're going to have beat Memphis at their own game, and I can't see them being up to the task. That lousy Memphis free throw shooting is a concern, but not enough to discourage me from laying the spot with the Tigers." I almost got away with it. Memphis did control the tempo, scoring 77 points, won the battle of the boards by +11, and jumped out to a 9 point halftime lead. Memphis ended up with the win but that lousy free throw shooting -- 17 misses! -- cost the cover. Still, matchups and sites are two significant tournament angles that can help cover the number far more often than not.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...