Dave Cokin
Last week I wrote about how the Rockets had won 18 in a row and it's best not to
try and figure out when a hot team is going to cold. The smart handicapper rides
the hot streaks. So what happened? Houston rips off 4 more wins in a row, going
3-1 against the spread. Again, if you tried to guess when the Rockets are going
to go into a tailspin and wager against them, you would have continued to lose
your shirt.
Now let's flip-flop that wagering advice into something just as practical, and
profitable, this time of the season -- wagering against teams that have packed it
in. The casual sports bettor often looks at favorites. But remember, wagering on
live dogs or against bad teams that aren't going to cover pay the same as
favorites that get there.
That's especially true as we come down the home stretch of the NBA regular
season. This week Warriors coach Don Nelson said, "Welcome to the NBA. There are
no bad teams in the NBA." Don was being diplomatic. The fact is there are a
busload of bad teams. There are numerous squads that are going nowhere except the
draft lottery. Take a careful look inside those squads. Are they a happy team? Do
the players want to give 100% each night? Have they tuned out the coach? Are they
playing for offseason contracts, rather than a team-oriented, winning attitude?
All of these questions should be on the lips of serious handicappers this time
of the season. Let's take a look at the Seattle Supersonics. The Sonics had a
brutal week, going 0-3 SU/ATS. The defense was a joke allowing 111, 121 and 168
points! The defense has been a problem for a while and they are riding a 7-2 run
over the total. They've also lost 12 of 13 games.
Sunday's astounding 168-116 loss at Denver spoke volumes about their defensive
interest, or should I say lack of. The Nuggets shot 60%, drilled 16 of 31 three-
point attempts and fell just 16 points shy of the team record. That's even more
incredible for those of you who remember the run-and-gun Doug Moe teams of the
1980s that didn't care a lick for defense. For the record, the previous team
record for regulation points was 163 against San Antonio on Jan. 11, 1984. The
Nuggets' franchise record for points came in a 186-184 triple-overtime loss to
Detroit on Dec. 13, 1983. But that was a different era -- and a triple OT game!
Sunday, the SuperSonics gave up an NBA season-high 48 points in the first
quarter and trailed by 19 after the first 12 minutes. The Nuggets set an NBA
record with 49 fast-break points. "We get beat that badly, there's no excuse for
that," Sonics coach P.J. Carlesimo said. "It matters a lot because we're
professionals and we're trying to compete and we didn't compete." This is a
situation to watch closely. Carlesimo is a screamer and already has a reputation
for players tuning him out or turning on him. It's a situation that could offer a
number of upcoming go-against spots.
And speaking of go-against spots, how about those LA Clippers? If the Titanic
were an NBA team in 2008, it would be the Clippers. Sam Cassell has already
abandoned ship. The Clippers appear to be going through the motions on a 2-11 SU,
3-10 ATS run. In a 119-109 OT loss to Washington, the Clippers started their 29th
lineup of the season and were fresh off losses by 22 and 24 points. Once
regulation was over, the Clippers, in the fourth game of a five-game trip, had
little left. Their only wins the last three weeks are against miserable Miami (by
one point) and against the struggling Kings -- in OT.
The Grizzlies are another team that has packed in the season. Memphis has
dropped 17 straight road games by an average margin of 13 points and has not won
on the road since defeating Indiana on Jan. 2. Memphis is currently on a 1-13 SU,
2-12 ATS run overall.
Keep in mind that the Grizzlies recently have switched to the smallest lineup
combination yet. Against Golden State, with center Darko Milicic out due to a
sore right foot, coach Marc Iavaroni started point guards Mike Conley and Kyle
Lowry alongside Mike Miller and Rudy Gay with Hakim Warrick at center. The Griz
finished with Juan Carlos Navarro on the floor in place of Conley. That's a quick
lineup, but a small, young one.
As long as we're talking about teams giving up on the season, you have to bring
up the NY Knicks. The Knicks are on a 1-8 SU, 2-6-1 ATS run. They are also going
with a youth movement. The team announced that Eddy Curry would have arthroscopic
surgery on his knee that will probably sideline him for the rest of the season.
On Sunday, the Knicks were without Quentin Richardson, who decided to rest his
sore right wrist. That meant the Knicks' youngsters would again receive a hefty
amount of playing time. Some of those minutes also came at the expense of a
healthy Zach Randolph.
In Sunday's game, Randolph Morris finished with 8 points in 18 minutes, while
Wilson Chandler (4 points), Renaldo Balkman (9 points) and Mardy Collins (7
points) also played significant minutes, a trend Isaiah Thomas said would
continue as the season winds to a close. Another trend to keep tabs on is that
the Knicks continue to be a terrible defensive team, at 12-4-1 over the total the
last 17 games. This is a great time of the season for teams on the playoff bubble
and for sports bettors to go against teams that have packed it in.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...