Dave Cokin
The talent on the court determines how many wins and losses a team is going to
ultimately end up with. However, there are important adjustments taking place on the
sidelines that can significantly influence how a team performs, both straight up and
against the number.
A coach leaving a program in mid-season can tell a lot about what is going on
with a team. A squad could be unhappy or unmotivated, they could tune out what the
coach is saying, or a coach could have difficulties off the court that are straining
his ability to do his job properly.
Indiana is the team getting the biggest headlines because of a late season
coaching change. It.5?s highly unusual for a team, in any sport, having such a great
season to make a sideline change. It's essential to pay close attention from a
handicapping perspective as to what happens next.
In the case of Indiana, the Hoosiers are riding a 0-3 spread run under interim
coach Dan Dakich, including an embarrassing 103-74 loss at Michigan State. That was
easily the biggest disaster for a team with an impressive 24-5 record. With 1:37
remaining in the first half, Michigan State was leading 59-29. Their offense was
generally reduced to one-on-one moves with the other four players standing around.
"That was real embarrassing," Eric Gordon said. "Usually you don't get to see Big
Ten teams score 100 points. They played harder, way harder than us..5?
You have to examine the Indiana stats for the whole season into two categories,
BK and AK -- before Kelvim Sampson and after. It's true that the players are the
ones who get it done on the court (or don't get it done). But coaching adds several
factors, such as motivation, harmony, in game strategy and discipline. The loss to
Michigan State sends up several red flags. Most important, how is it that a team
allowing 64 ppg gives up 103? As many times as the coach screamed, "Get back on
defense," no one responded. That can mean go-against spots, or if you like to play
totals, games going over if a team is suddenly soft on 'D'. Incidentally, Indiana is
on a 6-0 run over the total.
We saw something similar just two years ago, when Quin Snyder stepped down at
Missouri. The Tigers were in a tailspin, losing 6 straight games (going 0-6 ATS).
That's another red flag to sports bettors that something, or a combination of
things, is clearly lacking. When a team has problems, they often pack it in on the
road, and Missouri fit that bill in 2006 going 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS away from home.
Missouri was also 0-5 ATS as a favorite. Talk about overvalued!
That same season longtime Oklahoma State coach Eddie Sutton stepped aside for the
rest of the season after an embarrassing DUI charge. His son Sean took over as coach
and the Cowboys went on a 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS run, and were just 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS as a
dog. Changing a coach in mid-season can affect a team in very different ways.
Texas Tech made a coaching change this season when Bobby Knight retired and his
son, assistant Pat Knight, took over. The Red Raiders have played well despite the
change, on a 4-2 SU/ATS run that included a big upset of Texas, 83-80. They won
twice as a dog during that stretch as well as suffering a 44-point loss to A&M. The
team showed toughness and resolve bouncing back with the upset of Texas.
After the 44-point loss, practice was unlike any other the Red Raiders have had
this season. Knight didn't allow his players to wear their practice uniforms. He
also made them dress outside the locker room for two straight days. One practice
included very little basketball. The only basketball-related activity was free-throw
shooting, after the team ran sprints while carrying weights! With their arms
fatigued, only one player made a free throw and when the team didn't give him
encouragement for making the shot, Knight made the team run....Sounds like a chip
off the old block! Then they went out and upset Texas, so the new coach certainly
pushed the right buttons.
If a capable assistant steps in, there might be little effect. But usually there
is some change, such as a lack of defensive effort, or a team giving up, or one
rallying around the coach. With a new coach, the team is most likely to give a
better effort at home than on the road.
Even when there are no coaching changes, coaches will make adjustments during the
season to try and improve their team's play. A handicapper needs to be up on every
move and gauge whether the move works or not in relation to the side and the total.
Keeping up on all kinds of shifts, adjustments and goings-on with coaches (on and
off the court) are necessary to try and find edges against the betting number. |
Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...