Dave Cokin
Coming into this season, the Tennessee Volunteers were loaded, with four starters back to a team that led Ohio State by 20 in March before folding in the wake of a Sweet 16 appearance. Coach Bruce Pearl likes an uptempo style and this season they are averaging 86 ppg. A year ago they averaged 81 ppg behind a three-guard lineup. That uptempo attack is why they went 17-9 over the total two years ago and 19-13 over the total last season.
However, that came at a cost: The Vols ranked last in the SEC in scoring defense (75.1 points per game), last in field-goal percentage (.457) and last in rebounding defense. "No doubt," coach Bruce Pearl said before the season, "defense is the area where we can show the greatest improvement and have the most impact." In addition, Tennessee was a poor 3-7 SU/ATS away from home.
Well the Vols have improved in both categories significantly. Defense is such an important, sometimes even overlooked, aspect of winning. During their 16-1 start the Vols allowed 68 points per contest and 42% shooting by opponents, while still retaining their uptempo style averging 86 ppg. This is significant from a handicapping perspective because oddsmakers and the general public focus on offense first. Tennessee's defense has been overlooked undervalued this season, starting 8-5 under the total, after being an over machine the last two years. That improved defense is why the Vols are suddenly a good road team, winning their first 5 road games while also starting 3-0 SU/ATS as a dog.
A year ago Ohio State defeated the Vols 85-84 in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in San Antonio even though the Vols led by 17 points at halftime. UT had a chance to win, but Ramar Smith had a shot blocked by Greg Oden as time expired. It is possible to expend energy on improving team defense without sacrificing offense, which is essentially what is happening with the Vols. Here's a peak at some other improved defensive teams in college basketball and how that has influenced totals.
Ohio State: Even without Oden, the Buckeyes are still a strong defensive team, allowing 37% shooting. While they are not a good road team, Ohio State started 9-5 under the total.
VCU: The Rams are on a nice role in the Colonial Athletic Association, getting it done with defense allowing 59 ppg and 37% shooting. After holding Georgia State to 47 points in a 49-47 win, VCU Head Coach Anthony Grant said, "This was basketball 101 today." Impressive also in that it was their first home game in 26 days. The Rams are 10-4 under the total.
Georgetown: The Hoyas are a fierce defensive team once again, allowing 36% shooting with a dominant low post force in 7-foot-2 center Roy Hibbert. They took on another defensive powerhouse last week and lost 69-60 to rival Pitt in a game that went under the total. Hibbert had 12 points on just 3-of-7 shooting, while DaJuan Summers, the Hoyas' second-leading scorer, failed to score, missing all seven shots he attempted. Fifth-ranked Georgetown was just 3 of 20 from beyond the arc (15 percent)! Georgetown allows 57 ppg and started 8-4 under the total. Keep in mind that big games and key conference tilts down the stretch can bring out the best in defensive teams.
Louisville: Rick Pitino knows how to teach defense, especially on the perimeter. That's what made a 92-82 upset loss to Seton Hall so shocking. Pirate freshman Jeremy Hazell had a ridiculously hot hand, drilling eight three-pointers and scored 29 points. That's also not the norm for Louisville. The Cardinals allow just 37% shooting from the field and 60 ppg. That's why Louisville is 11-5 under the total. Seton Hall shot 62.5 percent in the second half and 50 percent for the game, clearly an aberration. After that loss Pitino shrugged, "They made shots from ranges that we can't even reach the basket."
San Diego State: Don't ignore smaller schools, as oddsmakers can't accurately gauge every team in the nation accurately. SDSU has been impressive defensively. They just torched Wyoming 70-43. Ranked third in the Mountain West in scoring offense at 70 points per game, Wyoming trailed 26-3. Wyoming scored its first basket with 10:39 remaining before intermission, shot 13.0 percent (3-for-23) from the floor in the first half and was 0-for-8 from three-point range. SDSU allows 61 ppg and is 11-4 under the total, including a perfect 7-0 under at home! Improved defense helps a team win on the court, and you to win at the window, either through sides or totals.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...