Dave Cokin
So much for the "rest" theory! It was two years ago that Colts coach Tony Dungy rested many of his key players the last two games of the season, then watched in horror in the first playoff game as Pittsburgh upset his 14-2 team, 21-18. Giants coach Tom Coughlin went all out to beat the Patriots two weeks ago in a meaningless game and received some criticism when three starters were lost.
But it didn't hurt them in the first playoff game, as the Giants won at Tampa Bay, 24-14. The Giants strong front line sacked Jeff Garcia only once, but hit him with regularity. It was interesting that Garcia admitted: "It wears on you, it does." That's why coaches do everything they can do get pressure on QBs. You may not always sack them, but just applying the heat can force QBs to throw too soon or make bad decisions.
The Giants head to Dallas for a rematch with the Cowboys, a team they are 0-2 SU/ATS against this season. Dallas scored 45 and 31 points against the Giants in those games. But a key for Dallas is health: WR Terrell Owens (15 TDs) suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 16 and hopes to be recovered, while WR Terry Glenn is expected to be back for this game but hasn't played all season.
The Chargers head to Indy to try to pull another upset of the Colts. They won in Week 10, 23-21 at home in the rain, but were lucky as Indy coughed it up 6 times and still should have won. Are the Chargers ready for prime time under first year coach Norv Turner? The Chargers arrive with a seven-game winning streak during which twice-victimized Tennessee was the lone team with a winning record.
There are a couple of key injury situations on the San Diego offense to watch this week. The Chargers might be without All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates, who sprained his left big toe Sunday. A lesser talked about injury is fullback Lorenzo Neal, who hasn't played since fracturing his fibula Dec. 9 at Tennessee. He's an excellent blocking back for LaDainian Tomlinson and he said there's a good chance he'll play against the Colts.
The Chargers are a good example of the difference between speed and height at wide receiver. A lot of people talk about how important it is to have tall wideouts, but that's vastly overrated. The fact is that's far less important than speed and playmaking ability. San Diego began the season with outstanding height with Gates and WR Vincent Jackson, but the passing offense wasn't generating much. It was only until they acquired WR Chris Chambers from Miami in mid-season that the passing game got going. Chambers caught six passes for 121 yards in Sunday.5?s 17-6 win over Tennessee.
The Chargers have scored at least a field goal on 30 straight red-zone trips over the past nine games. They have scored 16 touchdowns in that span. Meanwhile, the San Diego defense has forced 32 three-and-outs over their past nine games after forcing 12 in the season's first eight games.
They face a talented and fast Indy defense, one that held them to just 177 total yards in the Week 10 meeting. The Colts ranked first in points allowed (16.4), third overall (279.7 yards a game), 15th against the run (106.9) and second against the pass (172.8). The teams have some recent history and San Diego has had the Colts' number. The Chargers came into the RCA Dome in 2005 to pull a 26-17 upset that ended the Colts' 13-0 start. When the Colts went to Qualcomm Stadium on Nov. 11, San Diego bolted to a 23-0 lead, then hung on to win 23-21 as Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal with 1:31 left.
The teams ranked 1-2 in takeaways and in giveaway-takeaway differential. San Diego had 48 takeaways and was plus-24 during the regular season. The Colts had 37 takeaways and were plus-18. Colts coach Tony Dungy doesn't play his starters on special teams and Indy has had one of the worst coverage units in each of the last four years. When these teams met in November, Chargers return man Darren Sproles scored on an 89-yard kickoff return and a 45-yard punt return during the first nine minutes of the game.
Another team in the role of David knocking off Goliath will be the Jaguars, fresh off a wild win at Pittsburgh. They blew a 28-10 fourth quarter lead before rallying, so they will have to play much better. Pats QB tom Brady will be making his second playoff appearance against the Jaguars. In 2005, he led the Patriots to a 28-3 victory as he threw for three touchdowns completing 15 of 27 for 201 yards and was sacked four times.
The teams also last met last year in Jacksonville, with the Patriots recording a 24-21 victory. But the Jaguars' pass defense has been vulnerable at times. QB Drew Brees threw for 455 yards against them and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 337 yards while losing Saturday. The Jags had better pray for a windy night in Foxboro, or it's going to be a long night watching the backs of New England WRs. By the way, Jacksonville is on an 11-0 over the total run, the Pats are 10-6 over.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...