Dave Cokin
The Saints had high hopes heading into Sunday's game, but their playoff hopes went the way of Cheech and Chong: up in smoke. They lost 38-23 at home to the Eagles. The Saints still remained alive in the chase for the second NFC wild-card berth when the Redskins posted a 32-21 win over the Vikings. In order to reach the playoffs, the Saints have to defeat the Bears and hope the Redskins and Vikings, who are both 8-7, lose to create a three-way tie, so it's out of their hands now.
That's the key with handicapping the final week of the NFL regular season: Who needs what? Who wants to play? Who is focused on starting vacation? And that's a great example of the fallacy of "must-win" games. Teams that must win don't always come through.
The Browns are another good example. With a must win game Sunday at Cincinnati, a team going nowhere, the Browns struggled on offense in the cold weather, losing 19-14. They controlled their destiny, too, but now it's out of their hands. Now they must win against the 49ers AND hope Tennessee loses at Indy.
It's important to look at teams that must win, but it's just as important to look at the matchups. The Saints had to win Sunday, but have a terrible defense, one ranked 29th in the NFL. The Eagles came to town with a Top 10 defense. So what happened? The Eagles wound up with 435 yards of total offense and had five plays of 20 yards or longer in the first quarter alone and seven for the game. They were also effective running the ball, gaining 188 yards and a 6.6 average on 28 carries with Pro Bowler Brian Westbrook netting 100 yards on 17 attempts, and were solid in making 8 of 13 third-down opportunities for 61.5 percent.
The Browns win with a terrific offense that tried as best as possible to mask an awful defense, one that is second worst in the NFL. The offense has gone south the last two games in the cold, getting 8 points against Buffalo and 14 at Cincinnati. The defense got them a win against the Bills, but couldn't slow down the Bengals.
Browns tight end Kellen Winslow said, "We deserve to be in the playoffs. We think we're the better team, if we were to go against Tennessee. We have a lot to prove, and we deserve it." Well, Kellen, grow up, because you have to earn it on the field.
Despite all the injury problems the Redskins have battled all season,
Washington is on a 3-0 SU/ATS run and can clinch a playoff spot with a win Sunday against Dallas. So chalk about another "must win" game for a home team. The most remarkable story is backup quarterback Todd Collins, who was 22 for 29, 254 yards, two touchdowns in the upset at Minnesota. In a season of lousy QB play, it's nice to see at least one backup sparkle.
And speaking of sparkling, the Patriots have a shiny 15-0 record heading into the finale at NY. The Giants have nothing to play for as they are locked into playing at Tampa Bay the following week in Round one of the postseason. With all the injuries the Giants have suffered (TE Jeremy Shockey, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, RB Derrick Ward) and WR Plaxico Burress battling an ankle problem all year, it doesn't make a lot of sense to go for the win. On the other hand, beating the Pats would be a nice feather in their caps.
If you're wondering whether the quest to remain unbeaten is wearing on the Patriots at all, some players admitted it is. After beating Miami 28-7, a number of Patriots conceded in a subdued locker room that the coaches have been working them harder and harder as the weeks have progressed. "It just feels like every week kind of rolls into the next," Tom Brady said.
It's a tough call for Bill Belichick. Working the players too hard can wear them down as the most important time of the season approaches. On the other hand, there.5?s no guarantee that resting players sharpens them for the postseason. Two years ago the Colts started 13-0 and rested players the last two games. They looked flat in their first playoff game, falling behind 21-3 to the Steelers on the way to a stunning defeat.
The guess here is that you'll see the Pats starters for the first half and probably into the second half. The team is closing in on several records and players are admitting they want to get them. "We've got to get it for (Brady)," said WR Jabar Gaffney. "If we play our game, it will happen." "Of course we want Tom to break that record," added running back Kevin Faulk, "but he knows and we know if we focus on the team, all the other stuff takes care of itself."
Keep one other thing in mind: The Pats have a history of going with bland game plans late in the season to keep scouts from learning too much. Former Pats QB Jim Miller remembers the 2004 season finale against the 49ers and recalls the Patriots going vanilla, like a preseason game, and even going as far as installing an offensive package that hadn't been used for most of the season, simply to give potential playoff foes something else to worry about in terms of preparation. Belichick, the chess master, is thinking several moves ahead, which is how you win three Super Bowls over the last six years.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...