Dave Cokin
With only two weeks to go in the NFL season, different dynamics come into play for sports handicappers. The weather, of course, was noticeable this weekend. The high-flying Patriots offense, No. 1 in the NFL, was handcuffed not by the Jets but by the wind and freezing rain. The Pats have now gone 2-0 under the total, after starting 10-2 over when the weather was better.
Other factors are just as important, such as motivation. Did the Falcons looked like a motivated team Sunday at Tampa Bay, their first game since Bobby Petrino jumped ship? They looked lost. The Falcons had just five first downs and 133 total yards. The Buccaneers held a 43-to-17 minute time of possession edge. "It's tough with everything going on," Atlanta center Todd McClure said.
"It's been a long season for us and people are finally starting to show their frustrations," added wide receiver Roddy White. "It's tough to go out there and want to win so much and not get any breaks. It just continues to get worse." The team they were playing, the Bucs, had plenty of motivation. Tampa Bay clinched the NFC South championship with a 37-3 victory, covering as a 13-point favorite.
They are 5-0 in the division after going 0-6 a year ago. It's the fifth straight season that the team winning the NFC South finished last the previous year. Who says NFL parity is dead? Tampa Bay is now on a 5-1 SU/ATS run, while the Falcons are 0-5 SU/ATS the last five games, so you can see the importance of motivation on the field and at the betting window.
There are many ways motivation can play a role, as well. Sometimes teams are fired up to get a division title, while other times it can be individual players. Last week a lot was made of Pittsburgh Steelers safety Anthony Thomas guaranteeing a win over the Patriots. It happened on a smaller note in the Titans/Chiefs game. In a Nashville radio interview last week, former Titans assistant Gunther Cunningham, the current KC defensive coordinator, indicated he feared and respected Chris Brown, Tennessee's No. 2 back, but not RB LenDale White.
White said, "Their defensive coordinator said he really wasn't worried about me at all, he was worried about the other guy. So it's definitely great to get in that situation and know you have four minutes on the clock and a couple first downs end the game." White responded with a 24-carry, 93-yard day. "I end up coming back to bite in the butt." Tennessee is also still fighting for a playoff spot.
If there's any team that wants the season over with it's the Ravens, who have been the NFL's biggest busts after going 13-3 a year ago. They walked into a hungry team Sunday looking for their FIRST win! Miami delivered in a 22-16 OT comeback victory. You would have thought the Dolphins clinched a playoff spot, the way they were celebrating.
In his luxury suite, Dolphins owner Wayne Huizenga was hugging people. "This is like winning the Super Bowl," Huizenga said, in the overstatement of the century. It was emotional for coach Cam Cameron, too, his first win as a head coach. His eyes welled with tears on several occasions after the game. DE Jason Taylor, who has had disagreements with the coach this season, gave Cameron the game ball on behalf of the entire team.
How embarrassing should that be to the Ravens? Baltimore lost to an 0-13 team, one quarterbacked by Cleo Lemon, who got his first victory since playing at Arkansas State in 2000!
The Colts just clinched another division title, but one thing that is disturbing is their sudden inability to run the football. RB Joseph Addai has gone six straight games with less than 100 yards, including multiple failures to punch the ball in from the 1-yard line against Oakland Sunday. The Colts have run for 75, 66, 119, 63, 59 and 58 yards the last six games. Indy was inept against a team ranked 31st against the run, a team that had allowed nine players to rush for more than 100 yards.
The Chargers are on an 8-2 SU/ATS run, which included a 51-14 rout of Detroit Sunday. But before you consider them for the AFC title game, notice that they are beating bad or flawed teams that won't be in the postseason. They were lucky to beat Tennessee two weeks ago, and have been flattened by Minnesota (35-17), Jacksonville (24-17), Green Bay (31-21) and New England (38-14). "We're peaking," Philip Phillips said. "We think we're the hottest team right now," center Nick Hardwick said. Hotter than a 14-0 team? Hotter than a 9-3 SU, 10-2 ATS Jaguars team? Come talk to me when you outplay a playoff team.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...