Dave Cokin
This past NFL weekend was one of some revealing extremes. Home teams went 10-5 against the number, the "overs" were 9-6, and favorites were a dominating 12-3 against the spread. With the weather turning nasty in many parts of the country in December, historically it's been a good time to look at games going under the total. Yet, thus far in December the overs are 19-11, going against the historical grain a bit. Perhaps that's an aberration, as let's face it, there are so many bad QBs and offenses in the league.
However, one thing very revealing about what happened over the weekend is inside that 10-5 ATS run by home teams. Which home teams went 0-5 ATS in that sample? The Ravens, Jets, 49ers, Titans and Eagles. Only two of those teams had something to play for, the Titans and Eagles. Tennessee outplayed San Diego and should have won, allowing a fourth down TD pass in the final seconds to force OT. Philadelphia played hard and lost a close one to the Giants, 16-13.
The other three home teams have nothing to play for. And that's the main point this time of the year: Motivation! Who wants it more? The Jets failed to cover and scored just 6 points through three quarters on a Cleveland defense that is last in the NFL.
The 49ers (3-10) have been a disaster all season and are on a 1-7 SU/ATS run after another embarrassing performance, a 27-7 home loss to the Vikings. It's difficult to remember this team started 2-0. First-year offensive coordinator Jim Hostler has been a catastrophe as this offense is dead last. Reports are off a locker room of apathy.
And speaking of apathy, how about the Baltimore Ravens pathetic performance Sunday night, a 44-20 loss to the Colts? It's clear this team gave it all they had left on Monday night against the undefeated Patriots. When that didn't go their way, they packed it in, now riding an 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS run. The Ravens' offense turned the ball over five times, including three interceptions and one fumble by QB Kyle Boller.
"We didn't compete," WR Derrick Mason said. "We showed a level of competitiveness last week. We didn't show it this week. I don't know why. This one hurts. I think it comes to a point where you should get tired of walking into a locker room with the same look on your face and the same old feeling. As a competitor, you should want it to change." He's right, and they didn't compete. It's embarrassing to the fans and all those who bought tickets and showed up in the cold to pay the salaries of these guys, only to watch them pack it in. You can be sure the Ravens regret giving Brian Billick an extension back in January, because they will have to eat it when they deservedly let him go.
You won't get a lazy performance this weekend from anybody when the Bills battle the Browns. The Bills are tied with Tennessee at 7-6, and both stand a game behind Cleveland (8-5) in the race for the AFC's final playoff spot. The Bills visit the Browns with a chance pull even in the race.
Motivated Buffalo is on a 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS run! The only losses were to the Patriots, Jaguars and Cowboys (and they should have beaten Dallas, losing 25-24). Buffalo is 13-7 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron. "A lot of people think Buffalo doesn't have a good team," Justin Jenkins said. "But we know we're good. We're two or three plays away from having nine wins. So we're going into Cleveland hungry."
This team is hungry, everything the Ravens and 49ers aren't. The Browns are also hot, on a 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS run and 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite. The win Sunday raised their record to 8-5 and moved them a game ahead of Tennessee (7-6) and Buffalo (7-6) for the sixth and last playoff spot. Pittsburgh (9-4) also is within sight again for the AFC North division title. The victory also helped the Browns' tiebreaker edge because it gave them a 6-4 record in AFC games compared with Tennessee's 4-5 mark. Buffalo also is 6-4. "We're in the playoffs now," said RB Jamal Lewis, meaning that every game has that type of intensity and meaning.
The Jaguars head to Pittsburgh featuring two other motivated squads. Jacksonville appears to be on a mission, sitting pretty for a Wild Card spot. They are 0-2 SU/1-1 ATS against the Colts, 9-2 SU, 8-3 against everybody else! They are off a 37-6 rout of Carolina as Fred Taylor finished with 132 yards, surpassed the 100-yard mark for the third consecutive game. "Fred's hungry," QB David Garrard said. "He wants to do something special this year. We all do." When Taylor was asked about getting "deep into the playoffs," he talked about winning the Super Bowl. "You've got to go all the way. Deep isn't good enough. Winning is the only thing. You can't be satisfied just to go to the playoffs."
They will face motivated Pittsburgh team that is off a 34-13 defeat at New England and needs a win to stay ahead of the hard charging Browns. The Steelers are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS at home allowing just 9 ppg there. The Steelers are also 0-4 ATS their last four against Jacksonville, and 1-3 ATS their last four at home against the Jaguars. After last week's loss at the Patriots, coach Mike Tomlin said, "If that's the measuring stick, we're not close." A key measuring stick this time of the year is what teams want to take the field and those that simply don't care anymore. There's a reason the Ravens are on an 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS run, and a reason the Patriots are on a 17-1 SU/14-4 ATS run going back to last season. Some teams care, some don't!
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...