Dave Cokin
Pro football is such a violent sport, it's no wonder you see injuries all the time, even to star players. Depth is extremely important in the NFL with injuries so prevalent. One of the most overlooked aspects of handicapping games is examining the backup QBs.
The Falcons and the Texans have had all kinds of QB trouble over the last year. That's a bit odd, when you think about it, as Atlanta had the No. 1 overall pick in QB Mike Vick in 2001 while Houston took David Carr with the 2002 No. 1 pick. It didn't quite work out, did it? Carr was shipped out this summer and Vick was shipped off to prison. Houston's new QB is Matt Schaub, who had been Vick's capable backup.
So Atlanta went from having two QBs who could do different things well, to having none. Houston likes Schaub, but he just suffered another dislocated left shoulder injury Sunday getting knocked out of the Tennessee game. Guard Fred Weary (broken right leg) and guard Chris White (torn medial collateral ligament in his left knee) are also gone for the season.
So the Texans enter their final four games with rookie Kasey Studdard as their starting right guard and backup Sage Rosenfels taking over at quarterback. Houston started the season 3-2 when Schaub first got hurt. With Rosenfels playing they are 1-4 SU/ATS.
Naturally there are different talent levels for QBs and their backups. Some backups are decent, as we saw in Philadelphia. The Eagles are without QB Donovan McNabb, but the offense has scored 28 and 24 points the last two games with veteran backup QB Jay Feeley. Feeley is turning the ball over too much (which is why he's a career backup), but as career backups go, he's decent. In fact, the Eagles are 2-0 over the total the last two games with a productive offense.
Jacksonville is in a different spot with respect to their QB situation. David Garrard has really improved his decision-making skills the last two years, particularly with first-year offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. The Jaguars are 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS this season with Garrard playing most of the game. But with backup QB Quinn Gray they are 2-2 SU/ATS. Jacksonville is also 8-2 over the total the last 10 games.
The ideal situation is to find a backup QB who is decent and capable of running a similar style of offense. Tampa Bay is a great example of this. Jon Gruden's West Coast style of offense didn't miss a beat Sunday as backup quarterback Luke McCown was forced to replace veteran Jeff Garcia, who was out with a bad back. Making his first start for Tampa Bay and fifth of his career, McCown completed his first 15 passes and wound up 29-of-37 for 313 yards and two touchdowns.
"We tried to not play defensive with a young quarterback playing in his first game in a long time. Luke McCown responded," Gruden said. "For us to win this game, we knew we would have to score some points. The only way we were going to do it was by throwing it." That's an interesting comment, as most coaches scale back their playbook with a new or young QB taking over. Tampa Bay had 466 total yards, holding New Orleans to just 246. The fact is, more coaches should do what Gruden did and let the backups run the offense.
Arizona has been interesting this season under first-year coach Ken Wisenhunt. They practiced two different styles of offense in practice, with Matt Leinart running the first team and veteran Kurt Warner running the no-huddle style. Wisenhunt liked Warner's experience and quick decision-making ability and figured they didn't have enough time for Leinart to learn both. They used it to come back and cover in a 26-23 September loss at Baltimore, and the need for a good backup became even more evident when Leinart was later knocked out for the season. Arizona is on a 3-1 SU/ATS run with Warner (also 3-1 over the total).
Winless Miami isn't doing it. They've scaled back the offense while turning the offense over to rookie QB John Beck. They are averaging 8 ppg the last five games, a 4-1 run under the total. Beck completed 23 of 39 passes for 177 yards Sunday, 3 picks and no TDs. Just as big a problem, though, is Miami's running game has been devastated by injuries and there are rookies all around Beck, as well. The Miami offense put five rookies in prominent roles Sunday. John Beck has played three games, 12 quarters, and has not produced a TD. After the 40-13 loss at home to the Jets Sunday, Keith Traylor said, "This is by far the worst team I've played on." Few would argue.
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...