Dave Cokin
All games are not created equal. This is the time of the college football season when bad blood between longtime rivals can surface on the gridiron. But a thing to keep in mind when analyzing late season college football games is recent play. How is this team doing lately? It's not enough to look at the overall stats, just as it's not enough to look at a rivalry game and think both teams are guaranteed to give it their all.
Sometimes teams are banged up with injuries, other times a team is slumping, and still other times a team has packed it in. On the Pro Line show last week we looked at the BC/Clemson showdown in the ACC. I thought the number was too high with BC being the right side. Part of my thinking was that Clemson is a team under Tommy Bowden that, just when they look unstoppable, they fall apart.
They looked like the dominant ACC team in September, then fell apart with losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech as a favorite each time. They were on a nice roll since, but BC not only got the cover, but won the game 20-17. A similar thing happened last year, with Clemson starting 7-1, but finishing 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS.
Recent play is far more important to examine this time of the season. On Saturday I had a play on Indiana, hosting Purdue. This was a classic case of a motivated home team sitting bowl eligible at 6-5, hosting a team in a huge slump. After a 5-0 start, Joe Tiller's Boilermakers limp down the stretch. They have five losses in their last seven games and can't stop making mistakes. In my analysis I noted, "Indiana has their six wins to become eligible for their first bowl appearance since 1993. But make no mistake, this game is much bigger than any bowl for the Hoosiers. They've lost five straight to their rivals from West Lafayette, and this is without a doubt the most important game on their entire schedule. I don't see much of a difference in overall personnel, so special motivation becomes the biggest factor for me. It's got me on Indiana to knock off Purdue."
The home dog not only got the money, but a straight up win, 27-24. The win gives the Hoosiers their first bowl bid in 14 years, fulfilling the promise late coach Terry Hoeppner made to fans when he was hired three years ago. The Boilermakers looked bewildered most of the game. Purdue was limited to 69 yards rushing (minus-12 in the first half) and lost for the third straight week.
Other times dead spots on a schedule are LESS meaningful because of more important factors. Anyone looking at Kansas (11-0 SU, 10-0 ATS) last week might have thought they were overdue not to cover a game. I didn't. I gave out the Jayhawks with this rational: "Forget about this being a flat spot for Kansas. They still feel as though they're getting no respect from the pollsters and will be out to open their eyes with another blowout win. Iowa State has played four really grueling battles in succession, and I think it's the Cyclones who are far more likely to be flat here, or at least worn down physically. Lay the points in yet another Kansas crush job."
It was a Kansas crush job, a 45-7 win as a 26-point favorite. True, Kansas has a monster game on deck with Missouri, but Iowa State was also in a dead spot having played some many tough games in a row. And Kansas was feeling disrespected by pollsters, which can be more than enough motivation to overcome any flat spot.
Another example of a team in a late season funk is Miami, Florida. It's hard to believe the Hurricanes started 4-1, but they are now riding a 1-5 SU/ATS run. This is a team with no confidence, QB play or leadership. And even the vaunted defense has fallen apart, allowing 48 and 44 points the last two games. They may be 5-6 and fighting for a bowl, but their recent play should cause one to think twice before backing the Canes against anybody. This is still a time for upsets and dead spots. After all, even UL-Monroe can rise up and beat a school like Alabama!
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Smokin' Dave Cokin continues to make history as one of the nation's top sports gaming analysts of all time. Dave's reputation as the ultimate college sports insider expands by the year. His coveted Sunday night early college football plays literally move the number as soon as they're released and there are few analysts who can equal his big play record over the years. "The Cat in the Hat" also ha ...